Wednesday, 4 March 2015

Household projection stats make interesting reading

The latest statistics on household projections make good reading for house builders and developers, but are unlikely to be welcomed by many communities who already consider themselves to be under pressure from new housing.

The number of households in England is projected to increase from 22.3 million in 2012 to 27.5 million in 2037 – an increase of 23 per cent – according to figures recently released by The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG). That’s an average increase of 210,000 households per year.

The latest household projections are the starting point for estimating overall housing need in England, and will no doubt play an integral part in the argument for determining housing land supply and planning.

The key stats are:
  • Average household size is projected to fall from 2.36 in 2012 to 2.21 in 2037.
  • The projected change in household population over the same period is an additional 8.4 million people, increasing the household population in England to 60.9 million by 2037 and representing a 16 per cent change.

With the ongoing failure to build enough new housing, and household numbers increasing, the gap between supply and demand only looks likely to get wider.

Housing-related ‘thought for the day’

The Conservatives have pledged to build 200,000 new homes for first-time buyers aged under 40 in England at a 20 per cent discount by 2020, if they win the forthcoming election. And Labour will no doubt come out with its own plan B for tackling the housing shortage.

While these pledges might grab the headlines, the bigger challenge for any national government is turning them into reality, and overcoming the inevitable strong local opposition from residents and politicians to increased house building locally.

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